INFLUENCERQ · READING CRYPTO RISK · FREE WORKSHEET 03
Change the window. Recheck the story.

This is one complete, unworked exercise from the proposed US$19 workbook.
It is free to use. It does not include the paid workbook's worked answers.

USE THE FREE STUDY OR NOTEBOOK FOR THE INPUTS
In the notebook, select 2024, then 2025, then the full sample. Or use the
article's calendar-year results. Do not average the yearly statistics to fill
the combined row.

The question is whether adding ETH to BTC changed the risk comparison in this
fixed historical sample. Keep the return frequency, benchmark and drawdown
definition visible while you work.

Sample: Coinbase Exchange USD spot candles, 31 December 2023 through
31 December 2025 UTC. There are 731 paired daily returns. This is a historical
exercise, not a signal or forecast.

TAIL RULE
Select the lowest ceil(0.05 × N) BTC returns. “Ceil” rounds up to the nearest
whole number.

2024       N = 366
2025       N = 365
Combined   N = 731

RECORD THE OBSERVED RESULT FOR EACH WINDOW

Window       BTC volatility   Mix volatility   BTC drawdown   Mix drawdown
2024         ______________   ______________   _____________  ____________
2025         ______________   ______________   _____________  ____________
2024–2025    ______________   ______________   _____________  ____________

A. Does the direction of the risk comparison reverse?

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B. How many BTC tail days should each window contain?
Apply the stated rule to each value of N.

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C. Why do the annual tail counts not add to the combined count?

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D. ETH fell on 36 of the full sample's 37 BTC tail days. Is 36/37 a future
probability? Explain.

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